Chair Yellen is widely lauded for her accomplishments at the Federal Reserve. For the most part, her four-year term at the helm boils down to four (likely soon to be five) little […]
November 15 – Bloomberg (Nishant Kumar and Suzy Waite): “Hedge-fund manager David Einhorn said the problems that caused the global financial crisis a decade ago still haven’t been resolved. ‘Have we learned […]
The total US stock market remains in its primary price channel that started in early 2016. The market has seen several minor pullbacks within the rising price channel in 2017 and is […]
When markets turn highly speculative – and especially when in “melt-up mode” – underlying fundamentals are not all that relevant to securities prices. News and analysis will invariably focus on the positive, while surging markets create their own liquidity and self-reinforcing bullish psychology (“greed”). It’s also true that markets can enjoy speculative blow-offs even in the face of underlying fundamental deterioration. The years 1999 and 2007 are not yet ancient history.
To boil this down to its simplest form Competition exists for the future government revenue among services, debt owed to the top 3% and older social obligations like pensions and social security. […]
Of the diverse strains of inflation, asset inflation is by far the most dangerous. A bout of consumer price inflation would be generally recognized as problematic and rectified through a tightening of […]
Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Intel and Draghi all handily beat expectations. Booming technology earnings confirm the degree to which Bubble Dynamics have become entrenched within the real economy. Draghi confirms that central bankers […]
Since 1995, Sweden’s “inflation” rate has averaged under 2% as seen in the chart below. Please ignore the first chart since we all know housing is not a big part of anyone’s […]
Since this Fall’s summary discusses the seasonal strategy at length and touches on why we have seen strong summer performances this market cycle, I have decided to post an excerpt. Not all the objectives are covered in this excerpt.
The Total US Stock Market has rallied to the top of its price channel and into overbought conditions. During this rally, the market has worked off previous overbought readings through mild corrections […]