Battling Algorithms

30 August 2018 Update It happened again.  This time I used the word “Bitcoin” in a post and FB will not allow me to advertise that post because they ban the promotion […]

TSP Charts: 2014 Redux?

TSP C fund

The TSP S fund has less direct exposure to international revenue and has benefited in 2018. The TSP I fund has been hit by two forces – the slowing rest of the world economy and currency risk as the dollar rallies. 


The Dow Jones Industrial Averages is the oldest market index and widely followed. It only holds 30 companies that represent a cross section of the US economy. The DOW has removed the […]

So you want to invest in the TSP I fund

The TSP I fund following the Bellwether timing from July 4th 1998 to June 2018 (21 years) had an annualized return of 10.15% if it switched to the TSP G fund for the unfavorable season. Compare this to the TSP I fund Buy and Hold return over the same time period of only 4.77% annualized.

Doug Noland: Performance Chase

A Bubble collapse presented Dr. Bernanke the opportunity to test his academic theories, unleashing unprecedented monetary inflation specifically targeting securities markets. His policies spurred similar monetary inflation around the world that has […]

Doug Noland: The Great Fallacy

The pressing issue for global markets goes far beyond widening interest-rate differentials. Markets anticipate a future with the Draghi ECB eager to expand QE and, across the pond, the Powell Fed reluctant […]