Since this Fall’s summary discusses the seasonal strategy at length and touches on why we have seen strong summer performances this market cycle, I have decided to post an excerpt. Not all the objectives are covered in this excerpt.
The Total US Stock Market has rallied to the top of its price channel and into overbought conditions. During this rally, the market has worked off previous overbought readings through mild corrections […]
Bubbles are always about a redistribution and destruction of wealth. Its unparalleled global scope makes the current Bubble is so concerning… I believe the global government finance Bubble – history’s greatest financial […]
While much of the financial media are cheering the large earnings beat and price jump of IBM, there are some who tell it like it is in a market-politically-correct sort of way. […]
“Moe” Mnuchin and “Curly” Cohn go to Washington and spend 9 months coming up with a tax plan on the back of a napkin. And if it doesn’t pass, “the stock market is going to crash.”
Bloomberg: “Treasuries Surge as December Hike Odds Drop After CPI Miss.” Year-over-year CPI was up 2.2% in September, with consumer inflation above 2% y-o-y for six of the past 10 months. The […]
Until a week ago, I had not heard of Kevin Warsh. It is shocking to find someone at the top of the list for becoming the next Fed chairman who has been […]
I keep meaning to add a FAQ webpage to our site. I often respond to new member questions via email, but I am sure others have the same questions. Until I get […]
The market’s cycle of bull and bear markets is mostly the result of investors paying higher multiples for earnings during bull markets and lower during bear markets. If investors paid a steady […]
I would add that bull markets create their own liquidity. And so long as “risk on” is fueled by self-reinforcing speculative leveraging, the marketplace would easily accommodate small portfolio sales from the Federal Reserve. It’s an altogether different story, however, when “Risk Off” materializes. De-risking/de-leveraging dynamics would rather abruptly emerge from hiding. That’s when the markets will sorely miss – and beckon for more – QE.