With all the attention on the favorable season for equities, we decided to focus on the unfavorable season today. We asked the question, what would happen if instead of selling in May […]
The Lifecycle funds of TSP and Vanguard provide a good baseline for investors on how to allocate their accounts based on their age or years to retirement. We just finished updating our look at the current allocations of TSP and Vanguard Lifecycle funds.
Dollar Cost Averaging is not investment strategy but it could still be useful to re-enter the market after a bear market if your investment strategy moved you to the sidelines in time.
Alan Greenspan fashioned an asymmetrical approach to rate hikes: slash them aggressively in the event of de-risking/de-leveraging in the markets, while raising them cautiously to ensure that markets were not at risk […]
Yellen’s speech, “Financial Stability a Decade after the Onset of the Crisis,” somehow doesn’t address the historic experiment with quantitative easing (QE). There’s no mention of the Fed (and global central banks) […]
It’s all been so frustratingly predictable. Certainly not for the first time in history, the scourge of unsound money and inflationism has been so subtle that it goes virtually undetected. Instead of […]
The 2008/09 financial crisis should have concluded an incredible era of dangerous risk misperceptions and flawed calculations. But the Federal Reserve and global central bankers Doubled-Down. Instead of the markets reverting back […]
July non-farm payrolls gained 209,000 versus estimates of 180,000. June payrolls were revised 9,000 higher to 231,000. It’s worth noting that manufacturing added 16,000 jobs (est. 5,000) in July, the strongest gains […]
I’m convinced five years of “whatever it takes” took the global government finance Bubble deeper into perilous uncharted territory. Certainly, markets are more complacent than ever, believing central bankers are fully committed to prolonging indefinitely the securities bull market. Meanwhile, leverage, speculative excess and trend-following flows have had an additional five years to accumulate. Market distortions – including valuations, deeply embedded complacency, and Trillions of perceived safe securities – have become only further detached from reality. And the longer all this unstable finance flows freely into the real economy, the deeper the structural maladjustment.
The Highest Peak In the chart below, Dr. Hussman plotted five very different measures of valuation for the SP500 that all are highly correlated to predicting future long term returns. Market valuations […]